It's Not All About the Numbers

I love Jamie Moyer. How can you not? He's 47 years old. Let me repeat. He's 47 years old. At its hardest, his fastball tops out around 86 mph. He's facing kids who are young enough to be his son. He's been treated less than fairly by the Phillies over the last year and has handled himself marvelously. Unfortunately, with the season just over a week away from starting, Moyer still finds his role with the team uncertain.

The Phillies have one of the best rotations in baseball. Roy Halladay sits at the top, with Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ all lining up behind him. The fifth starter is still a bit of a mystery. Kyle Kendrick has pitched very well this spring, stating his case for the final spot by only allowing three earned runs in close to 20 innings. Moyer's ERA is in the threes and his still has been for more consistent than his injury riddled 2009 campaign.

From a numbers standpoint, you would have to give the nod to Kendrick. But there are other numbers to consider. The age difference is by far the most glaring factor influencing the decision. The odds say Moyer is likely to break down given his age and the amount of pitches his shoulder and elbow have endured over the course of a brilliant yet lengthy career. On the other hand, Moyer is scheduled to make $8 million this season, a hefty price tag for a long man out of the 'pen. Although the Phillies have rarely made decisions about playing time or roles based solely on salary.

And then there's everything you can't measure about the situation. Moyer gets people out. Plain and simple. He throws 'junk' that is so far off from what hitters are used to seeing that it becomes effective. His knowledge and experience is clearly unparalleled by anyone on the team. His fatherly figure and cool demeanor has a calming and peaceful effect on the locker room.

The case for Kendrick is more complex. With injuries to Brad Lidge and J.C. Romero the loser of the fifth starters job will be sent to the bullpen. For Moyer that transition will be no problem, but for a young kid like Kendrick, you don't want to mess with his psyche too much. Confidence for a pitcher is almost as important as talent and ability. Should Moyer go down with an injury, throwing Kendrick into the rotation would be difficult. The same situation arose with Joba Chamberlain and we've all seen how the Yankees handled that disaster. Kendrick has become the shadow of new ace Roy Halladay. There's no one better to learn from and with some tutelage from the Doc it can only help his cause.

It appears as though Manuel is leaning towards Moyer, but it's a dicey situation to say the least. I'm glad I'm not the one making the decision. If you renamed Moyer Player A and Kendrick Player B and compared their resumes side-by-side I think Kendrick would get the job. Unfortunately, we have emotional ties to Moyer that make the decision exponentially harder. If I'm the skipper, I give the ball to Moyer and explain to Kendrick that his time will come. When I watch the 2010 Phils I want to be able to look into the dugout and see Old Man Moyer chatting it up with the boys, not chewing on seeds in the bullpen. It's a great problem to have, but a problem that will impact the season greatly.